Unless you’ve been under a rock for the last two years, you’ve noticed that crime in America has exploded. We can blame Covid or gun laws or poverty, but what if this spike in crime was altogether predictable and preventable? Let me explain.

Back in 2020 when you and I were trying to find toilet paper and Chardonnay, America’s major cities turned into something out of a Marvel comic book. A recent study suggests a perfect storm occurred. As Covid forced many cities into lockdown, our politicians moved quickly to change public policy around incarceration. At the same the country was already struggling through a nationwide shortage of police officers.

Arrests in 2020 fell by 25%. This dramatic reduction in enforcement caused criminals to become more brazen. See, the bad guys are dumb but they aren’t stoopid. They quickly figure out that the rules have changed and they can get away with murder…literally. During a twelve month period in 2020, American jails reported 1.6 million fewer admissions.

Surely the crime rate must’ve fallen during this period, right? Nope. The lockdowns created enormous opportunities for bad guys to engage in nefarious behavior. According to the CDC, the U.S. murder rate increased 30% between 2019-2020. It was the largest increase in over 100 years. It’s like a substitute teacher taking over a seventh grade history class. After a few days the “inmates simply take over the asylum”.

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Jails are different from prisons in that they are typically reserved for those accused of crimes and awaiting trial. They can also hold criminals who have been convicted, but who have sentences less than one year. So, these inmates were not likely murderers and rapists. Most (45%) of those released were being held on misdemeanor charges. These are the bad guys that often return to selling drugs, breaking into cars, committing domestic violence or holding up people in the Whole Foods parking lot. Bureau of Justice stats show that 78% of prisoners are re-arrested for property crimes and 70% are rearrested for drug crimes within five years.

About one-in-five of those released during Covid were awaiting felony trials or serving felony convictions.

The unintended consequences of this ill-advised policy are painfully evident now. A few days ago America’s coffee brand, Starbucks, made a surprise announcement. They will close 16 US stores, citing “personal safety” as the reason. Apparently the crime surrounding these stores has become so prevalent that employees and customers no longer feel safe. The stores are in Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia; Washington, DC, and Portland, Oregon. Cities with the highest rate of inmate releases during Covid. Most surprisingly, Starbucks will close six stores in Seattle, the birthplace of Starbucks. Seattle continues to experience record levels of violent crime. So far this year, violent crimes have increased roughly 25% over 2021. Citywide shootings are up 82% over last year. Seattle is trying to catch up with Chicago for gun violence.

Now that Covid has been relegated to minor league status, why hasn’t crime returned to it’s lower, pre-covid level? I’m glad you asked. See, leading up to Covid many American cities have eliminated “cash bail” and pre-trial detention because it unfairly targeted the poor. In 2018, California was the first to enact such policies. In January 2020, on the precipice of Covid, the state of New York enacted it’s own law eliminating cash bail and pre-trial detention for an estimated 90% of arrests. So, if you are arrested for a serious crime you no longer have to sit in jail eating Bologna sandwiches and drinking toilet wine. Bad guys are released on so-called “signature bonds”. That is, criminals sign their name and promise to return for trial. Bad guys are free to wander the streets and commit more crimes. In most cities, judges are not allowed to consider a defendant's criminal history or whether they have a history with guns. Nor can they detain a repeat offender who is being charged with a second crime while out on bail. This is the main reason that crime is through the roof in America. It’s also one of the reasons why people do not want to go back into the office in Gotham City. It’s just too dangerous without Batman.

On July 22nd, Congressman Lee Zeldin (NY) was attacked at a rally in New York by a man brandished a knife. He lunged at the Congressman’s neck, screaming “you’re done.” The attack was foiled and the perp arrested. He was arraigned and released a few hours later on his own recognizance.

See, this is what happens when our politicians enact policies based on the world they want rather the world we have. The law of unintended consequences always wins. Unfortunately we have a lot of bad guys in the US. Those bad guys are gonna take advantage of every opportunity to practice their craft. Putting them back on the street with a promise to return for trial is asinine. Meanwhile the rest of us are watching our backs in the grocery store parking lot and we are downright afraid of going to the Mall.

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Why Are We Riddled with Crime in America?

© Tom Greene 2023. All Rights Reserved.